IonQ Publishes World’s First Fully Compiled, End-to-End Blueprint for Breaking 256-Bit Elliptic-Curve Signatures
IonQ’s full-stack platform spans algorithms, architecture, and error correction and is powerfully positioned to help secure the world as Q-Day timeline accelerates
COLLEGE PARK, Md.–(BUSINESS WIRE)–
IonQ (NYSE: IONQ), the world’s leading full-stack quantum platform and foundry, today published the first complete, end-to-end fault-tolerant resource estimate for running Shor’s algorithm. The historic paper by IonQ’s research team uses the recently published Walking Cat architecture to demonstrate how a specific application can be optimized for a trapped-ion quantum computer. This work concludes that a 20,000-physical-qubit IonQ quantum computer is expected to break secp256k1, the 256-bit elliptic curve used by blockchain technology such as Bitcoin, in just under 26 days. IonQ chose to run Shor’s algorithm for secp256k1 because it is one of the most scrutinized cryptography standards in production today.
The result demonstrates IonQ’s powerful full-stack capabilities. IonQ’s quantum platform researchers reduced the resource requirements to break secp256k1 by optimizing in tandem the algorithm, compiler, hardware architecture, and error-correction layer. These optimizations map to high value scientific and commercial applications, bringing IonQ’s near-term machines firmly into the domain of utility-scale quantum computing.
“In 2025, I flagged that the Q-Day time horizon was shifting materially earlier – from the 2030s to the 2020s. Major enterprises and the U.S. government now concur, and the White House issued its executive order on quantum security earlier this summer,” said Niccolo de Masi, Chairman & CEO of IonQ.
De Masi continued, “As our historic paper today demonstrates in full detail, IonQ’s superior full-stack approach provides powerful capabilities. We are on track to produce our fully fault tolerant 10,000 physical qubit system in 2027, with significant further advances in our labs, manufacturing and deployments in 2028. Our quantum platform spans software, post-quantum cryptography (PQC), and quantum key distribution hardware (QKD). We are confident IonQ is uniquely positioned to help secure our nation and allies against the cyber risks our adversaries will pose in the quantum era.”
— Niccolo de Masi, Chairman & CEO, IonQ
“This is the first time anyone has taken a utility-scale quantum algorithm and estimated its cost without approximating away the parts that usually dominate a real machine’s runtime. We compiled every operation down to the actual error-correction primitives our architecture runs. Today’s paper proved — rather than assumed — a lower bound on the probability that the full computation succeeds. It should be noted that no deployed digital asset nor crypto platform was affected during IonQ’s research.”
— Chris Ballance, President of Quantum Computing, IonQ
“This level of completeness is what turns a resource estimate into an engineering blueprint. The hardware resource count for this computation is at the same scale as the systems we are already building toward. IonQ has demonstrated today that fault-tolerant quantum computing is a challenging engineering problem with a clear, accountable path, rather than a distant abstraction.”
— John Gamble, VP Architecture, IonQ
“What’s changed is not one breakthrough but relentless and compounding progress at every layer of the stack. A computation that once demanded millions of physical qubits now fits on a 20,000-qubit IonQ machine on our roadmap. Our full-stack implementation of Shor’s algorithm underpins every other application on our roadmap that customers are bringing to IonQ: chemistry, financial services, materials science, optimization, defense, and intelligence.”
— Martin Roetteler, VP Quantum Applications R&D, IonQ
A Broader Signal for Full-Stack Quantum Capability
The paper builds on IonQ’s Walking Cat architecture, published in April 2026 as the world’s first full-stack blueprint for a fault-tolerant quantum computer. It introduces an optimized version of the Walking Cat architecture for the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP), based on trapped ions and quantum LDPC codes. IonQ says the result is best understood as a capability milestone first and a security finding second: a three-decade-old problem, re-architected end-to-end in one multi-layered study. That same full-stack methodology, not tied to any one algorithm, is what IonQ is applying across its broad roadmap of quantum applications beyond cryptography.
- 25.7 days: estimated time to solve the 256-bit ECDLP on secp256k1 per attempt
- 19,397 physical qubits: total device footprint
- 1,457 logical qubits and 39 million Toffoli gates at the logical level
- First end-to-end estimate fully mapped to underlying quantum error correction (QEC) codes and error-correction circuits
- A rigorous, provable lower bound on the algorithm’s success probability, rather than a heuristic argument
- Result aligns with the scale of systems on IonQ’s publicly stated hardware roadmap (~2028 timeframe)
“Our findings clearly define the risk to elliptic-curve-secured systems. The algorithms meant to replace them require the same kind of rigorous stress-testing we just applied here, and that is work IonQ intends to keep doing. Today’s result is best understood as a capability milestone first and a security finding second: a three-decade-old problem, re-architected end-to-end in one multi-layered study. That same full-stack methodology, not tied to any one algorithm, is what IonQ is applying across its broad roadmap of quantum applications beyond cryptography,” said Jordan Shapiro, President of Quantum Platform, IonQ.
This work is an architectural and resource-estimation study consistent with IonQ’s publicly stated roadmap, which targets systems with the relevant capabilities in the 2028 timeframe. The full paper titled, Computing 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithms in 26 days on a fault-tolerant trapped-ion quantum computer with 20,000 qubits is available HERE.
Security Implications
Throughout this research, IonQ followed responsible disclosure practices prior to publication. The company shared advance copies of this work with U.S. government and industry partners, and hosted discussions on its implications.
The cryptographic exposure this work describes relates to authentication and integrity rather than to confidentiality. Elliptic-curve signatures underpin code signing, certificate hierarchies, device identity, and long-lived roots of trust. Unlike an attack on encrypted data, a signature compromise is exploitable going forward rather than retroactively against traffic recorded today.
The estimate follows recent published work rather than announcing a new attack. IonQ’s logical-layer figures advance on similar research regarding optimized point-addition circuits and resource estimates for elliptic-curve cryptocurrencies. What is new here is the architecture-specific accounting: what the same algorithm costs on a high-rate error-corrected trapped-ion machine rather than on a surface code. Consistent with comparable recent work, IonQ is publishing resource estimates while withholding the specific circuits.
The mitigation is standardized and available today. Both Stateless Hash-Based Digital Signature Algorithm (SLH-DSA) and ML-DSA are both unaffected by this class of result. Signatures have generally been sequenced last in post-quantum migration planning precisely because roots of trust are the hardest element to replace, which is what makes an early and precise estimate useful. The same category of risk will recur across other curves and key sizes as the underlying mathematics continues to improve. As such, the finding shows why a defense in depth strategy and cryptographic agility have to be ongoing investments. IonQ’s full-stack security roadmap is designed to help organizations prepare for and adapt to impending quantum threats.
About IonQ
IonQ, Inc. [NYSE: IONQ] is the world’s leading quantum platform and foundry – delivering integrated quantum solutions across computing, networking, sensing, and security. IonQ’s newest generation of quantum computers, the IonQ Tempo, is the latest in a line of cutting-edge systems. Earlier systems have helped customers and partners including Amazon Web Services, AstraZeneca, and NVIDIA achieve a 20x performance increase over previous quantum solutions and accelerate innovation in drug discovery, materials science, financial modeling, logistics, cybersecurity, and defense. In 2025, the company achieved 99.99% two-qubit gate fidelity, setting a world record in quantum computing performance.
Headquartered in College Park, Maryland, IonQ has operations across North America, Latin America, EMEA, and APAC. Our quantum computing services have been available through all major cloud providers since 2021, while we also meet the needs of networking and sensing customers across land, sea, air, and space. IonQ is making quantum platforms more accessible and impactful than ever before. Learn more at IonQ.com.
Note to Investors Regarding Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements. All statements contained in this press release other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, including statements regarding the resource estimate for running Shore’s algorithm described herein, the timing of Q-Day, IonQ’s quantum computing and security roadmaps and the anticipated benefits of its Quantum Security platform. In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “suggest,” “plan,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimate,” “target,” “project,” “should,” “could,” “would,” “may,” “will,” “forecast,” “confident,” “position,” “become,” “on track,” “designed,” “ongoing” and other similar expressions. These statements are only predictions based on our expectations and projections about future events as of the date of this press release and are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove incorrect, any of which could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements, including, among others, those described under the heading “Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2025 and our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended June 30, 2026 filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. New risks emerge from time to time, and it is not possible for our management to predict all risks, nor can management assess the impact of all factors on our business or the extent to which any factor, or combination of factors, may cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in any forward-looking statement we make. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. Except as otherwise required by law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
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