Holiday 2025: Sensormatic Solutions Reveals Global Predictions for Retail’s Busiest Days
- Black Friday is predicted to be the season’s busiest shopping day for in-store retail, as in years past
- Data shows that 77% of retailers whose traffic outperformed their category in the 2024 holiday season outperformed through the first half of 2025
NEUHAUSEN, Switzerland–(BUSINESS WIRE)–Sensormatic Solutions, the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls (NYSE: JCI), today released its predictions for the holiday season’s busiest shopping days in the United States and abroad. As in 2024, Sensormatic Solutions expects U.S. retailers to see their largest holiday crowds on Black Friday (Nov. 28), with the last two Saturdays before the Christmas holiday (Dec. 20 and 13) taking the next two spots. This annual forecast is developed by Sensormatic Solutions retail traffic consulting and analytics group based on historical holiday traffic data and current trends identified through the use of its ShopperTrak Analytics solution.
“The holiday rush is right around the corner, and competition for customer attention this year will be fierce,” said Tony D’Onofrio, president of Sensormatic Solutions. “With economic uncertainty affecting both shoppers and businesses, stores that prioritize precise, personalized omnichannel promotions will have an edge come November, and data analytics will be the key enabler of these efforts. Our busiest days predictions can help retailers get a sense of what’s to come and—when paired with source-to-store visibility into their supply chains—guide the path to the convenient, seamless in-store experiences shoppers crave.”
Sensormatic Solutions predicts U.S. in-store traffic for the holiday season will be relatively flat to -3% compared to last year. To date, traffic this year has been down slightly (roughly 2.5% on average) compared to last year. In 2025, Christmas—which tends to be the predominant driver of holiday shopping in the country—will fall on a Thursday for the first time in over a decade. While early promotions in the weeks leading up to Black Friday and concerns around product availability encourage shoppers to get gift-buying done earlier, the late-week holiday may translate into a sustained high-traffic period in the week leading up to the holiday. As in years past, early afternoon will be the busiest time of day for in-store shopping throughout the season, with traffic likely to peak between 2 and 3 p.m.
“To no one’s surprise, our predictions show that Black Friday will still be the highlight of the U.S. holiday shopping season, but retailers are likely to see some interesting deviations from recent years thanks to the calendar and changing shopper preferences,” said Grant Gustafson, head of retail consulting and analytics at Sensormatic Solutions, whose team predicts the season’s top busiest days. “It’s a great example of how one-to-one historical traffic data can provide a framework for retailers’ holiday planning, but it can’t tell the entire story. It’s why we look to a broad range of indicators when determining our predictions for the busiest days of the season.”
Based on Sensormatic Solutions U.S. traffic data, the organization predicts that the season’s busiest shopping days will be:
- Nov. 28 (Black Friday)
- Dec. 20 (Super Saturday)
- Dec. 13 (Second Saturday in December)
- Dec. 21 (Super Sunday)
- Dec. 26 (Boxing Day)
- Nov. 29 (Saturday after Thanksgiving)
- Dec. 23 (Tuesday before Christmas)
- Dec. 6 (First Saturday in December)
- Dec. 27 (Saturday after Christmas)
- Dec. 19 (Friday before Christmas)
“Our data from the past year shows that the retailers that ‘win’ the holiday season carry that momentum into the new year,” Gustafson continued. “More than three-quarters of 2024’s holiday traffic leaders have maintained an edge throughout 2025 so far. Given the increased interest in and use of in-store pickup options was a defining feature of the 2025 back-to-school rush, these programs are likely to be key differentiators throughout the holiday shopping season. Businesses that keep a close eye on their real-time data and are prepared to maintain seamless pickup and in-store journeys will fare better in the eyes of their customers this winter—setting them up for success in the year to come.”
Globally, the top busiest holiday shopping days are expected to be:
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Australia
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Brazil
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Canada
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China
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Colombia
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Costa Rica
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France
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Germany
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Hong Kong
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Italy
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Mexico
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New Zealand
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Singapore
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South Africa
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South Korea
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Spain
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United Kingdom/Ireland
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To get more information about Sensormatic Solutions in-store traffic insights and retail analytics technology, visit www.sensormatic.com/shopper-insights. To make sure you’re up to date on all things holiday retail, use #SensormaticHolidays to follow along on LinkedIn and X.
About Johnson Controls
At Johnson Controls (NYSE:JCI), we transform the environments where people live, work, learn and play. As the global leader in smart, healthy and sustainable buildings, our mission is to reimagine the performance of buildings to serve people, places and the planet.
Building on a proud history of 140 years of innovation, we deliver the blueprint of the future for industries such as healthcare, schools, data centers, airports, stadiums, manufacturing and beyond through OpenBlue, our comprehensive digital offering.
Today, Johnson Controls offers the world`s largest portfolio of building technology and software as well as service solutions from some of the most trusted names in the industry.
Visit www.johnsoncontrols.com for more information and follow @Johnson Controls on social platforms.
About Sensormatic Solutions
Sensormatic Solutions, the leading global retail solutions portfolio of Johnson Controls, powers safe, secure and seamless retail experiences. For more than 50 years, the brand has been at the forefront of the industry’s fast-moving technology adoption, redefining retail operations on a global scale and turning insights into actions. Sensormatic Solutions delivers an interconnected ecosystem of loss prevention, inventory intelligence and traffic insight solutions, along with our services and partners to enable retailers worldwide to innovate and elevate with precision, connecting data-driven outcomes that shape retail’s future. Please visit Sensormatic Solutions or follow us on LinkedIn, X and our YouTube channel. Please visit Sensormatic Solutions or follow us on LinkedIn, X and our YouTube channel.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250916526572/en/
Media Contacts:
Jaclyn Messina
Sensormatic Solutions by Johnson Controls
Work: +1-561-235-6458
Email: [email protected]
Madison Southall
Sensormatic Solutions by Johnson Controls
Work: +1-215-869-6452
Email: [email protected]
Grace Torrance
Matter on behalf of Sensormatic Solutions
Work: +1-978-518-4504
Email: [email protected]
KEYWORDS: Europe Switzerland United States North America
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