{"id":870249,"date":"2025-08-04T14:20:14","date_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:20:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.marketnewsdesk.com\/index.php\/schwab-trading-activity-index-cautious-optimism-in-july-as-stax-score-edges-upward\/"},"modified":"2025-08-04T14:20:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-04T18:20:14","slug":"schwab-trading-activity-index-cautious-optimism-in-july-as-stax-score-edges-upward","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.marketnewsdesk.com\/index.php\/schwab-trading-activity-index-cautious-optimism-in-july-as-stax-score-edges-upward\/","title":{"rendered":"Schwab Trading Activity Index\u2122: Cautious Optimism in July as STAX Score Edges Upward"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Schwab Trading Activity Index\u2122: Cautious Optimism in July as STAX Score Edges Upward<\/b><\/p>\n

Schwab clients were net sellers of equities in July; Net selling was highest in the Information Technology sector while net-buying activity was seen in Communication Services, Health Care and Financials<\/i><\/p>\n

WESTLAKE, Texas–(BUSINESS WIRE<\/a>)–
\nThe Schwab Trading Activity Index\u2122 (STAX) increased to 41.79 in July, up from its score of 40.66 in June. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab\u2019s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month.<\/p>\n

This press release features multimedia. View the full release here: https:\/\/www.businesswire.com\/news\/home\/20250804565525\/en\/<\/a><\/p>\n

\nThe reading for the four-week period ending July 25, 2025, ranks \u201clow\u201d compared to historic averages.<\/p>\n

\n\u201cWhat the July STAX shows us is that while Schwab\u2019s retail clients are bullish, that optimism is measured,\u201d said Joe Mazzola, Head Trading and Derivatives Strategist at Charles Schwab. \u201cThe S&P 500 may have hit new all-time highs in July, but when we consider the ways Schwab\u2019s retail clients are engaging with the markets, we\u2019re not seeing the kinds of risk-on strategies that would indicate a lot of confidence in the rally\u2019s longevity.\u201d<\/p>\n

\nStock market volatility fell to five-month lows in July, easing as geopolitical worries receded and the U.S. budget debate got settled relatively easily. Tariff concerns remain in the market, but a deal with Japan in late July with 15% tariffs on its products appeared to calm worries. The Cboe Volatility Index\u00ae (VIX) fell beneath 15 by late July, well below its historic 20 average.<\/p>\n

\nEconomic data generally held up decently during the STAX period, with June seeing 147,000 U.S. jobs created and unemployment dropping to 4.1%, both improvements from May. Retail sales in June grew a healthy 0.6% from May, and preliminary July University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment rose to 61.8, its highest level in five months.<\/p>\n

\nInflation reports in July brought new concerns that tariffs might be factoring into price growth, though monthly gains weren’t extraordinary. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw headline CPI up 0.2% and core \u2013 which excludes food and energy \u2013 up 0.3% from May. And on an annual basis, the CPI rose 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May. Even as services prices saw slower increases, prices of goods ticked higher, to some a sign that tariffs were beginning to take their toll. Prices for toys, clothing, and furnishings rose.<\/p>\n

\nSecond quarter earnings season got off to a mostly solid start in July, with around 83% of companies exceeding Wall Street analysts’ expectations. The estimate for blended second quarter profit growth, which includes companies reporting and projections of companies yet to report, rose while actual earnings from companies reporting the first few weeks of earnings season climbed more than 8%.<\/p>\n

\nThe rally in July broadened through the month, with nearly 75% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their respective 50-day moving averages by the end of the STAX period. Volatility continued to depress, pushing the VIX to the low 15\u2019s, as the S&P 500 failed to record a 1% move for the fourth consecutive week.<\/p>\n

\nStocks briefly dove and yields for the 10-year Treasury note climbed to nearly 4.5%, the high end of their recent range, on media reports that President Trump had asked congressional Republicans if he should fire U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. After reassurance that the termination would not take place, stocks resumed their rally and yields eased.<\/p>\n

\nAside from that spike, the Treasury market generally marched in place during July despite worries that the Republican budget plan could significantly raise U.S. debt (yields trade inversely to Treasuries). Yields again fell below 4.3% for the benchmark 10-year note in early July, but mostly stayed between 4.3% and 4.5%, not far from the Fed’s target range.<\/p>\n

\nPopular names bought by Schwab clients during the period included:<\/p>\n