Primary concerns around investing<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
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Likelihood of a recession<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
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Expected length of a recession<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n
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Economic data influencing outlook<\/b><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nPotential of a recession<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n14%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nCertain<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n10%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n6 months or less<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n22%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nInflation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n77%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nFed raising interest rates<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n14%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nHighly likely<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n22%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n6 \u2013 12 months<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n42%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nConsumer spending<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n63%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nPolitical landscape in D.C.<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n13%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nSomewhat likely<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n37%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n1 \u2013 2 years<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n29%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nLabor market<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n55%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nInflation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n10%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nSomewhat unlikely<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n18%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nMore than 2 years<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n9%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nConsumer debt<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n43%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nMarket correction<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n10%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nHighly unlikely<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n4%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n\u00a0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nHousing market<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n38%<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n \n\u201cWhile traders certainly don\u2019t feel we\u2019re entirely out of the woods yet when it comes to an economic downturn, we\u2019re seeing an influx of cautious optimism,\u201d said James Kostulias, head of Trading Services at Charles Schwab. \u201cThis is no doubt thanks to a sunnier economic picture overall this quarter. The jobs market may be cooling somewhat, but it continues to be strong, and unemployment remains remarkably low, especially compared to pandemic-era highs. Even the most recent inflation numbers, while they do indicate a modest rise, are a far cry from the highs we saw in 2022. Concerns may remain, but bullishness is on an upswing.\u201d<\/p>\n Signs of Optimism<\/b><\/p>\n \nMid-life and older traders are the most bullish (49%) while that number drops to 41% for younger traders and 38% for retirees. While bearishness is on the decline, one in five traders express uncertainty about their market outlook. That lack of clarity is even higher (one in four) among retirees.<\/p>\n \nOverall, 51% of traders think it\u2019s a good time to invest in stocks, mutual funds and other equity-based investments, up from 41% in Q2. Additionally, 53% feel they are better off financially than they were a year ago compared to only 36% in the previous quarter. Traders largely continue to feel confident in making investment decisions (63%), a number that remains virtually unchanged quarter-over-quarter.<\/p>\n \n\u201cRetired and younger investors can be particularly sensitive to market swings, so it makes sense that they might feel a little less bullish compared to mid-life and mature investors who have experienced many market cycles over their lifetimes,\u201d said Kostulias. \u201cThis experience could lead mid-life and mature traders to feel more comfortable taking calculated risks. This is just one area where the many educational resources and trading tools available at Schwab can make a big difference, and traders are taking advantage of these. Traders say they are now spending more time researching their trades before executing, and our tools can help them to ideate, create, execute, and monitor their trades under multiple conditions and scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n Sector and asset class outlook<\/b><\/p>\n \nAt a sector level, traders are the most bullish on energy (51%), information technology (51%, a significant bump from 38% in Q2) and health care (47%). Real estate is the only sector that the majority of traders are bearish on (54%).<\/p>\n \nAt the asset class level, many traders are bullish on value stocks (46%), domestic stocks (44%), growth stocks (42%) and equities in general (40%). Traders are slightly less bullish on fixed income than the previous quarter, as sentiment ticked down from 42% to 35%.<\/p>\n AI\u2019s impact<\/b><\/p>\n \nArtificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as an important factor in traders\u2019 decision-making, in terms of both the companies they invest in and how they feel the technology will influence the market. Two-thirds of traders (66%) see AI as potentially having a massive or significant impact on the market and 35% are already factoring company use of AI into their stock analysis. Just over half of traders (51%) are bullish on AI stocks for the next three months.<\/p>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n
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