Share of population by race, key states only, 2019 vs. 2021<\/b><\/p>\n
Red = Republican-leaning; purple = swing; blue = Democratic-leaning<\/i><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n\u00a0\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nRed counties: 2019\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nRed counties: 2021\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nPurple counties: 2019\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nPurple counties: 2021\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nBlue counties: 2019\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \nBlue counties: 2021\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nWhite*\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n80.5%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n79.7%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n60.7%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n59.9%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n51.1%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n50.4%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nBlack or African American*\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n7.7%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n7.8%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n12%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n12.1%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n27.1%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n27.2%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nHispanic\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n8%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n8.5%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n20.7%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n21.3%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n13.7%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n14%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nAsian*\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n1.6%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n1.7%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n3.5%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n3.6%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n5.3%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n \n5.4%\n<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n*Non-hispanic members of race\n<\/p>\n Some racial groups were not included, so figures in each column may not add up to 100%.<\/i><\/p>\n Each 12-month period ends halfway through the year. 2019 covers July 2018 through July 2019, and 2021 covers July 2020 through July 2021.<\/i><\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n \nWhich party wins control of the Senate is a toss-up as of the end of October, according to polling. This year\u2019s midterm elections are significant because they may determine the direction of the country on the economy, climate change and abortion, among other issues.\n<\/p>\n \nIncreasing diversity could<\/i> shift votes in purple counties toward Democrats. Eighty-seven percent of Black Americans voted for President Biden in the 2020 election, as did nearly two-thirds (65%) of Latino people and 61% of Asian people, according to a 2020 CNN exit poll.\n<\/p>\n \n\u201cThese changes in racial makeup are small but noteworthy,\u201d said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. \u201cThe pandemic-driven wave of relocation to suburbs and rural areas\u2014which tend to lean more conservative than city centers\u2014made those toss-up places more diverse. The demographic shift isn\u2019t big enough to turn solidly red places blue, but it could move the needle in purple areas.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \nMarr continued: \u201cMigration from California to Phoenix helped Democrats win Arizona in the 2020 presidential election for the first time in 24 years, and similar migration trends could tip the Senate midterms in Democrats\u2019 favor in closely matched states like Georgia and Nevada.\u201d\n<\/p>\n But there are strong forces that could counteract increased diversity and favor Republicans<\/b><\/p>\n \n\u201cAmericans sorting themselves into neighborhoods to live near people similar to them has progressed over the past four decades,\u201d Marr said. \u201cWhen people relocate, they often choose an area made up of people similar to them. Some of the people, regardless of their race, who left liberal places and moved into red or purple counties were likely frustrated by local responses to the pandemic and relocated to places that better matched their lifestyles and political preferences.\u201d\n<\/p>\n \nA Redfin survey conducted in October supports the self-sorting trend. Just 8% of U.S. residents would be enthusiastic about moving to an area where most residents don\u2019t share their political views. Nearly half (46%) would be hesitant to move to such a place.\n<\/p>\n Purple counties in Nevada, Georgia and Arizona\u2014key to the Senate midterms\u2014gained thousands of residents and became more diverse in 2021<\/b><\/p>\n \nOf the 10 states likely in play for this year\u2019s Senate midterms, Nevada and Georgia are particularly closely matched as of the end of October. Arizona is leaning Democrat, but it could feasibly go either way. Winning both Nevada and Georgia would be a major boon for either party\u2019s chance of controlling the Senate.\n<\/p>\n \nIn Nevada, roughly 20,000 residents moved into purple counties in 2021. The state\u2019s purple counties became nearly one percentage point less white, the biggest racial shift in at least a decade. In Georgia, purple counties gained roughly 4,000 residents in 2021. Georgia\u2019s purple counties are about half a percentage point less white.\n<\/p>\n \nAnd in Arizona, purple counties soared in popularity last year, gaining nearly 80,000 residents. Arizona\u2019s purple counties became nearly three-quarters of a percentage point less white, the biggest racial shift in at least a decade.\n<\/p>\n \nAdditionally, those states typically attract new residents from traditionally blue areas. For instance, homebuyers moving to Las Vegas from out of town mostly come from Los Angeles, the Bay Area and Seattle. Homebuyers moving into Atlanta typically come from New York, Los Angeles and Washington, D.C.\n<\/p>\n \nBut like the nation as a whole, other forces, like the state of the economy, may favor the Republican party in this year\u2019s midterms. And while some of those relocators are bringing a Democratic vote with them, others are moving somewhere that more closely aligns with their conservative values.\n<\/p>\n Blue counties in key states lost residents, but it\u2019s not likely to impact the midterm Senate elections<\/b><\/p>\n \nBlue counties in key states followed the opposite trend as red and purple counties, losing <\/i>about 127,000 residents from out-migration in 2021, the biggest population decline in at least the last decade. Blue counties in most key states became less white than they were before the pandemic, but not as quickly as red and purple counties.\n<\/p>\n \nBut movement out of blue counties is more pronounced in states that aren\u2019t <\/i>key to the Senate midterms, with those ones losing nearly 1.3 million residents. That means blue counties in key states are unlikely to lose their Democratic majorities.\n<\/p>\n \nTo view the full report, including charts, please visit: https:\/\/www.redfin.com\/news\/relocation-red-purple-counties-pandemic-election\/<\/a><\/p>\n About Redfin<\/b><\/p>\n \nRedfin (www.redfin.com<\/a>) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, instant home-buying (iBuying), rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country’s #1 real-estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home can take an instant cash offer from Redfin or have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we’ve saved customers more than $1 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 6,000 people.\n<\/p>\n \nFor more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com<\/a>. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center<\/a>. To be added to Redfin’s press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com<\/a>. To view Redfin’s press center, click here<\/a>.\n<\/p>\n View source version on businesswire.com: <\/span>https:\/\/www.businesswire.com\/news\/home\/20221028005102\/en\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n Redfin Journalist Services: KEYWORDS:<\/b> United States North America Washington New York<\/p>\n INDUSTRY KEYWORDS:<\/b> Public Policy\/Government Construction & Property White House\/Federal Government Technology Electronic Commerce REIT Other Construction & Property Residential Building & Real Estate<\/p>\n\n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n \n <\/p>\n
\n<\/b>
Isabelle Novak, (414) 861-5861
\n
press@redfin.com<\/a><\/p>\n
![\"Logo\"](\"https:\/\/mms.businesswire.com\/media\/20221028005102\/en\/1407505\/3\/Redfin_Standard_Web_Logo.jpg\"){kind=logo}
<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n